Forex Weekly Forecast & FX Analysis June 29 - July 3

Technical analysis of the Forex market for the upcoming week June 29 - July 3. Let's study the main opportunities for trading on key assets of the currency market.

EUR/USD

The euro against the dollar has moved to the side development stage. If earlier we talked about the market making a strong upward and downward trend movement, now we can talk about a flat. If you take into account the indicators, then they all look up. However, a much more important characteristic of the current market situation is the fact that the price has literally stuck to the level of moving averages. Taken together, these 2 factors allow to say that it is possible to consider variants of trading up to the level of 1.1279.

GBP/USD

The upward trend, which reached 1.2769, has been completed. Now we can talk about the dominance of the downtrend, which is clearly traced by the downtrend line. If you look at the price chart, it is very important to note that the price has fallen below the level of moving averages and below a very important psychological level of 1.2405. The characteristic figure is shown in the histogram, which does not confirm the fall and indicates a possible correction. If you look at the oscillator, it has reached the oversold area. In current conditions we can mark the critical intersection point between the level 1.2405 and the trend line. If the price goes down from this point, we trade down. If it goes up, we trade upwards.

USD/JPY

Despite the surge of volatility in the previous weeks, the dollar against the Japanese yen still shows a tendency to side move with elements of low volatility. The current market stage allows drawing a sideways corridor with the borders of 106.710 and 107.492. All indicators are looking up, but do not show the trend. It is also important to note the market's attempt to anchor below the designated corridor, but the result was a candlestick with a very long shadow down, followed by a U-turn and a return to the boundaries of the corridor. Thus, we consider trading options within the channel. If the channel is broken through, we can consider trading options in the breakout direction.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar against the American one is still characterized by an upward trend correction. The correction can be traced especially clearly to the oscillators, which mainly develop within the limits of 40 to 60. The presence of a flat and the absence of a clear trend movement in the current market stage are decisive. The histogram looks upwards, but it does not give any specific signals for trading. It is much more important that the price has reached the level of moving averages for the first time in a long time, which allows to talk about the possibility of rebound and upward movement. In general, it is possible to mark the boundary between 0.6870 and 0.6933. As long as the price is inside we are trading via channel strategies.

USD/CAD

The dollar against the Canadian dollar is in a local upward movement. We are talking about localization only because the price has been falling for a long time and has moved far away from the level of moving averages. In recent weeks, there was a flat, as a result of which the market has moved up from the level of moving averages. If you look at the flat movement, you can see a certain upward trend with the corresponding peaks. However, this is not confirmed by the histogram, which at least allows us to talk about divergence. At the same time, the oscillator has entered the overbought area. Taking into account the absence of strong volatility and the possibility for an immediate upward trend, a downward movement can be expected.

USD/CHF

The critical price range for this currency pair is 0.9480 and 0.9545. The price tried to consolidate below this corridor several times, but each time there was a pullback up. Indicators, primarily oscillators also confirm this corridor. On the working oscillator you can clearly see the elements when the market tried to gain a foothold below this corridor, and how the return followed. The histogram is in the area above zero, but it does not make any significant movements. Taking into account the fact that the price is close to the bottom of the sideways channel, we can consider trading upwards.

USD/RUB

The dollar noticed its fall against the Russian ruble, moving the situation to the stage of sideways movement. Last week is interesting because several significant events happened at once. First, we are talking about the fact that for the first time in a long time the price has risen above the level of moving averages. Secondly, for the first time in a long time the oscillator shows an attempt to rise above the level of 60. Thirdly, the histogram is close to neutral values without a clear trend. Thus, the combination of these factors suggests that there is an opportunity to trade on the downside.

Gold

Last week has brought what we have long expected from gold - growth. The price of gold managed to rise above 1734,521 And then there was a significant growth. This is confirmed not only by the price dynamics, but also by the indicators. The last minimum points within the uptrend allow us to draw a definite uptrend, which was tested last week by a candle that left a long enough shadow downwards. Usually, it is believed that a long shadow down symbolizes a rapid upward movement. Thus, it is possible to trade within the uptrend for an upward trend.